RFTIT Tumblr Weekly Roundup!

shipbooks

Hey folks! So, work has begun on Arya III (which, btw, marks me passing the 20% mark through ASOS) but in the meantime, let’s see what we’ve got on the Tumblrs:

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11 thoughts on “RFTIT Tumblr Weekly Roundup!

  1. fjallstrom says:

    Regarding the dead ladies club, I think lady Greyjoy (honourary member as she is still alive) is very much a lost opportunity. I think GRRM could easily have used her to undermine the Mother’s Madness trope with a scene where she arrives at Pyke to get her boy but fails badly. She fails because though she is clear eyed enough to see the futility of Balon’s wars, she is bad at playing the political game and in frustration says truths that are beyond the scope of the political debate, which gets her branded as mad, excused and sent from the hall.

    If you will, she is suffering from a politically defined insanity, which would be a new take on Mother’s Madness.

  2. They will bend the knee says:

    “Some rough envelope math suggests that Dany would need fifty-odd large ships to move the roughly 16,000 men she has right now.”

    So you think 360 passengers would fit in a late medieval area ship ? That sounds very generous an estimate. To put it in perspective at the beginning of the Hundred Years’ War Edward III’s landing party is estimated to have been between 15 000 and 20 000 men and the English fleet was about 150 ships and some historians have estimated it to be even larger. If we take a much later example, in late XVIIth century, William III landed in England with 35 000 men and 250 ships.

    So I don’t see a sailing age ship carrying more than 100-150 fighting men especially considering how many sailors were needed to operate those sails. My estimates would be that Dany needs between 100 and 150 ships, depending on their size, to cross her army. not that I’d want her to Westeros certainly don’t need another mad king… 😉

    • Keith B says:

      Another comparison would be the Spanish Armada, 130 ships, 8000 sailors and 18,000 soldiers. Also, whether she starts from Meereen, Volantis, or even Pentos, Daenerys has much farther to sail than an English Channel crossing, so she’d need more supplies for each soldier. That would also increase the number or size of ships required.

      • They will bend the knee says:

        Yes, that example is even more famous and much better documented than the one I had in mind. The point remains valid : a ship carries 100-150 fighting men, probably much less if you take into account the supplies needed for the crossing. Even if logistic has never been GRR Martin strong suit he cannot break the consented suspension of disbelief if Danny sails to Westeros with less than an hundred ships. 200 sounds like the most reasonable estimate if she counts on feeding her troops during the journey.

    • I did say the envelope math was rough…

      • They will bend the knee says:

        Let’s just agree that GRRM has had some trouble with numbers before and that not everyone of his reader is a nit-picker nor as much a Marine nerd as I am. 😉

  3. thatrabidpotato says:

    I want to know where you’re getting only 15k men for Dany. Is that just counting the Unsullied and the formed free companies already? IIRC, the total number of freed slaves she has following her around is well over 100k. Even if most of those don’t fight, similar to the wildling host of Mance Rayder, her troops are well over 15k, more like 30 or 40k bare minimum, and she isn’t going to leave all the civilians behind. Then you have to take into account all the slave soldiers of Volantis who are going to desert to her, and the slave population of that city.

    Basically, when Dany is ready to invade Westeros, I could see her having 500k combatant and non combatant followers that will need transport.

    • I’m going off the known numbers of folks under arms. I think she’s leaving the civilians behind.

      • thatrabidpotato says:

        She might. But that wouldn’t be at all like the Dany we’ve seen so far in this series, the rescuer who’s already dragged the civilians she freed from Astapor and Yunkai to Meereen. It’s possible her epiphany in the end of Dance will make her willing to abandon the civilians, but it would mark a drastic change from her behavior to this point.

    • I cannot be the only person who thinks that Dany should have a lot more men under arms than she is credited as having by all the wikis and like? She sets off from Astapor with around 12,000 Unsullies or nearly-there Unsullied iirc, and then recruits an extra thousand sellswords for very little cost. The Dothraki are pretty minimal by this point, but…her freedmen companies must be absolutely tiny if 15k men is her total, because it isn’t as if she’s been taking heavy casualties so far.

      And it’s really strange to me, because she has an incredibly large pool of recruits to draw on. And indeed, if you read the last Barristan chapter you’d get the impression that they were a lot larger than around a thousand men each. Or I did anyway.

      • thatrabidpotato says:

        Same here. Also consider that Tyrion calls the Golden Company of 10k a small army, then says Dany has a large one. 15k isn’t exactly large.
        In any case, her numbers will surely swell when she leads a slave uprising in Volantis (bare minimum) and Pentos (highly likely), and when most of the Dothraki join her. I think Steven’s estimate that she’ll only have 15k when she invades Westeros is simply wrong. It’s far more likely to me that she’ll have the largest army on the continent by a significant margin, which she’ll need because Dorne turning against her means she won’t have any allies of note.

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