Quick Analysis of New Winds of Winter Excerpt: Arianne II


Last night, George R.R Martin put up a new TWOW preview chapter, this time Arianne II. Some of you may be familiar with this one from various readings at cons, but for those of you who haven’t been following that news, I’ve put my thoughts below the cut:

– first of all, let me just say how nice it is to have some more ASOIAF Dornish chapters, compared to what’s been going on in the show. Nice to be reminded that Arianne exists, the Martells love each other, etc.

– Connington’s invasion of the Stormlands definitely seems like a major part of the plot of TWOW, given that we’ve already had two chapters devoted to it in ASOIAF. Does make the decision to leave him out of the show more and more interesting.

– This may be some of the most Stormlands worldbuilding we’ve ever seen, given that much of what we’ve had to date has been extremely Storm’s End-focused. Here we get the rainwood as GRRM’s riff on Murkwood, the differing climates of Dorne and the Stormlands, and the giant caves that the Children of the Forest lived in.

– Starting to get a sense of what the Martells are up to: “Nym and Tyene may have reached King’s Landing by now, she mused,…If not they ought to be there soon. Three hundred seasoned spears had gone with them…If the Lannisters had tried to spring their little trap in the kingswood, Lady Nym would have seen that it ended in disaster.” So two of the Sand Snakes are escorting Myrcella, and not Trystane (because the book Martells aren’t kinslaying idiots) to King’s Landing to work from the inside, while Arianne acts on the outside.

– Elia Sand/Lady Lance is a huge pain in the ass. Love the line about her being Doran’s vengeance for Arianne’s misdeeds.

– So the Golden Company has taken Mistfall of House Mertyn. I’m now curious about Old John Mudd and Young John Mudd and Chain is just a straight-up Marvel character (although now I’m curious who his great grandsire was at Redgrass Field…will have to do some heraldry digging to find out). Bit of an update on the invasion: Halfmaester holds the Roost while Connington marches on Storm’s End…

– Classic GRRM undermining of the romanticism of war here with the discussion of thieving vs. foraging and raping vs. “persuading.”

– Can’t wait to see some Lysono Maar cosplay, that is one fabulous-looking sellsword.

“Yet the Golden Company has been defeated every time it has crossed into Westeros. They lost when Bittersteel commanded them, they failed the Blackfyre Pretenders, they faltered when Maelys the Monstrous led them.”
That seemed to amuse him. “We are at least persistent, you must admit. And some of those defeats were near things.”
“Some were not. And those who die near things are no less dead than those who die in routs.” Not a bad summation of the Golden Company, the best runners-up ever.

– Big update on the invasion: Storm’s End has fallen without Aegon dying (so much for that theory), and now Jon Connington is preparing to “smash his enemies in the field” as an army marches from King’s Landing. So is that Mace, post-Margaery acquittal? A possibly disloyal Randyll Tarly? Both?

– After two chapters now, I’m even more convinced that Arianne is going to throw in with the Golden Company and marry Aegon. Only question to me is whether the Dornish forces can march up the Boneway fast enough to take part in the battle as the Golden Company’s ace in the hole.


89 thoughts on “Quick Analysis of New Winds of Winter Excerpt: Arianne II

  1. David Hunt says:

    I chanced to be on Twitter when you tweeted about this posting. Lucky me. As to how JonCon and/or Aegon is so confident of their ability to take a Royal army in the field…I’d say that they’ve got at least one major ally hiding in that army, poised to turn their cloak. Whether it’s Mathis Rowan, Randyll Tarly, or someone else, I don’t feel confident enough to guess.

  2. thatrabidpotato says:

    Wait, what?

    Didn’t GRRM already have this one up?

    • thatrabidpotato says:

      Though after looking at it, I feel compelled to add that poor Dany is most definitely going to pay the price for Quentyn’s folly. Arianne seems to have already condemned Dany as a terrible person, without hearing Gerris Drinkwater’s garbled version- and I’ll bet anything that the Dany hating Gerris is going to be the only Dornishman to return from the east, the reasonable and thoughtful Archibald Yronwood dying outside Meereen and Dany taking the blame for that too.

      • Andrew says:

        I think Arch may survive Essos. However, I think Tyrion would use them as envoys to the Martells carrying Quentyn’s bones.. I don’t think that will turn out well for either of them if Doran is dead by the time they arrive.

        • thatrabidpotato says:

          Archibald Yronwood is always going to be protected by his name. He would be allowed decent treatment and the chance to tell his story, which would reflect well on Dany. Since no one in Dorne can be allowed to think nicely of Dany, since that might stop them from doing something extremely stupid, Arch cannot be allowed to return.

        • Why would Doran be dead?

          • Andrew says:

            In the previous TWOW Arianne chapter she mentions Doran is growing weaker. Quentyn mentions the same to Dany. We also see it in Arianne’s chapters with his gout getting worse. The news of Quentyn’s death may likely drive the final nail into his coffin.

      • Between Arianne’s desire for redemption through victory over the Lannisters and the Quentyn question, it’s becoming very clear the Martells are going to side with Aegon and against Dany.

    • David Hunt says:

      It is my understanding that he had read it an conventions but had not posted it. So transcripts were floating around, because people recorded him.

    • I thought the same thing, but it was read at a con and has since been worked on. Aziz at History of Westeros can tell you for sure.

  3. stephendanay says:

    House Roxton for Chains’ ancestor? Their sigil is a chain of rings and they’re a Reach house, which was the Daemon’s major base.

  4. Andrew says:

    1. I think I know how Connington took Storm’s End. It was being besieged by a Tyrell token force. It would be easy to attack the unsuspecting besiegers and in doing so convince the defenders of Storm’s End that Connington had come to aid them, and convince them to open the gates to him and his followers. Then after Connington got his men through the gates, he goes and kills the defenders, or what Ramsay Bolton did tot take Winterfell.

    2. “the time someone made off with Harry Strickland’s favorite elephant. Little Pussy”

    Homeless Harry has been noted to love his elephants.

    3. I think it is a post-Margaery acquittal as even the High Sparrow admitted the case against her was weak. As to what happens to the Tyrell army, I see either a Battle of Lake Trasimene or a Battle of Okehazama scenario. Connington can either ambush them while marching down the kingsroad while hiding his forces in the woods or attack them while they are encamped, a nightmare scenario for any army.

    4. I think Arianne refusing to take up Daemon’s offer of sending him to meet Connington and Aegon instead of going herself may in the end have the same repercussions as Cat going to King’s Landing herself to tell Ned of the dagger and the footpad.

    5. Okay, so it can be surmised that Dany’s side is the dragon and Aegon’s is the elephant.

    5a. It does remind me of the cyvasse games between a boy and girl, Myrcella and Trystane, where a Dornish prince always loses with his elephants in the passes being eaten by the princess’s dragons. A likely hint for how the second Dance of Dragons will play out.

    • thatrabidpotato says:

      “Aegon’s side is the elephant”. Just like Volantis, another pack of fools about to get wrecked by Dany.

    • John says:

      Worth remembering that Stannis sent Justin Massey off, in part, to hire sell swords, and, in particular, to figure out if the Golden Company was available. So the idea that they’ve arrived to save Stannis at Storm’s End wouldn’t seem totally crazy to the defenders.

    • 1. We’ll see, but seems later.

      2. HAR!

      3. Yes, agreed. Or Randyll turns.

      4. Similar, certainly.

      5. YUP.

      5A. Quite possibly, but on the other hand, remember Aegon loses against Tyrion because he over-uses his dragon.

      • thatrabidpotato says:

        Except their last match, where he underuses his dragon. It isn’t so much underusing or overusing, but that he just does not understand the piece. More hints he isn’t a real Targ.

      • Andrew says:

        It was actually not using his dragon that he lost the last one. What’s more, Tyrion referred to the dragon as a “she.” This is also where Tyrion tells Aegon to forgo going to Dany, or not bring out his dragon, in a way. Or maybe it could be something else.

  5. Brett says:

    I loved the description of the Rainwood forest. It sounds like a temperate rain forest, probably the only one left in Westeros. It’s interesting to here Arianne mention the maester’s thoughts on what causes it – the maesters seem to have some incipient knowledge of how weather forms.

    So is that Mace, post-Margaery acquittal? A possibly disloyal Randyll Tarly? Both?

    I’m definitely thinking a disloyal Randyll Tarly. Mace would still be in King’s Landing serving as Hand in his Hand-Chair until everything is squared away with Margaery and Cersei, and it would be perfect set up for the “most loyal and finest soldier in the realm” to suddenly switch sides.

    • Andrew says:

      I definitely do think Tarly will defect, but I don’t think he will do until later or if he is leading the army, until Connington bests him. It is still too early.

      • John says:

        It’s too early? Seriously? After two books of nothing happening, it’s still too early for anything to happen? If Martin were sane, he’d realize he needs to burn through the patience-trying Aegon plot relatively quickly. I have no confidence that he has any sense of perspective about pacing these books, though, so perhaps you’re right.

    • Unless this comes after Margaery’s acquittal.

  6. Michael says:

    Regarding the Dornish in the Boneway – how do you think this might tie in as a parallel to the Prince Lewyn’s host in the Rebellion? Also, given marching times, it almost seems like the Boneway host might arrive in KL just in time for a Dornish power play with Nym and Tyene.

  7. Tywin of the Hill says:

    If GRRM was going to change his website’s WoW excerpt, he might as well have put Tyrion I.

    1. “We are at least persistent, you must admit. And some of those defeats were near things.”
    The plural seems to imply the Blackfyre’s were just as equally matched in the Third Blackfyre Rebellion as in the first one.
    2. Looks like Arianne is just as reckless as always. She could have simply told Haldon “A battle is no place for a Princess of Dorne. If I were to die, you would lose any hope of an alliance with Dorne” and send Daemon Sand in her stead. But no, that’s what her father would have done.
    3. Isn’t it weird how the Lannisters and Tyrells went through a lot to decide which Stormland’s houses should they attain, only to do nothing for the next 6 months?

    • Andrew says:

      1. Not likely in my opinion, although it was a closer call than the Second and Fourth.

      2. I think that will come back to bite her like Cat going to King’s Landing instead of just sending Ser Rodrick.

      • Tywin of the Hill says:

        I don’t know. All the D&E Tales seem to foreshadow that the Blackfyres will be a big threat in the future.
        The Westerlands and the North are being raided by Dagon, the Great Spring Sickness and the drought hace decimated the population, septons are openly preaching for the sons of Daemon, and everyone seems to hate Aerys and Bloodraven’s guts.
        Also, from a writting perspective, it just makes sense to have the 3rd Rebellion be the turning point in the future of Westeros.

    • 1. The Third Rebellion was certainly more of a close-run-thing than the Fourth.

      2. Yep.

      3. In-fighting will do that to you.

  8. nu says:

    Great to read your thoughts on the military part of the situation, since I lost track of who has their armies where right now.

    As the things stand, I really don’t see Arianne marrying Aegon, though. She identifies too strongly with being the heir to Dorne through all of her chapters, including this one, she still thinks that Quentyn will try and maybe succeed in marrying Daenerys (she’ll hardly want to risk that they both end up marrying a Targaryen contender), and even when it comes to personal preferences, Aegon’s simply too young and inexperienced to be her type.
    There’s someone else in this party I can see developing a thing for Aegon and doing something stupid: Elia Sand. I certainly don’t suggest they’ll get married, of course, but something seems to be set up with her teenage rebellion here.

    • Lann says:

      I disagree. I think she will marry Aegon mainly because as she puts it she doesn’t want to kneel to Quentyn and Aegon has a better claim. It could end up (assuming Zombie Apocalypse will be successfully stopped)being like the original Conquest where Dany (or her descendants) controls all of Westeros except for Dorne.

      • Andrew says:

        I really doubt the Iron Throne, dragons, or Dany or Jon will survive the series. More likely the realm is divided into seven kingdoms once more.

        • Josh Markey says:

          Yeah, I too must disagree. At least with the part about the seven Kingdoms getting split up at the end (although I’ve always felt like Dany might not go the distance, and Jon’s already technically dead, lol). Rather I’ve always envisioned the events of the series changing the way the continent is ruled in a very dramatic way. Say, a move towards a much more powerful small council, or even a rudimentary form of democracy?

          • Andrew says:

            It took centuries for Europe to go from feudalism to democracy, and there are things missing from Westeros that are essential for a democracy: decent literacy rate, large, robust middle class, etc.

            You’re best starting with some kind of Parliament and working your way from there.

    • I gotta disagree. Look at that Quentyn thing – she’s not ok with Quentyn king, so the best way to fix that is Arianne Queen, which was Doran’s plan in the firs place.

      And Aegon might be young, but he’s a hottie and a conqueror.

  9. Agree with you that this is a fantastic reminder that the Dorne plot is intricate, nuanced, and intelligent unlike anything seen on the show. I’m still holding out hope that TWOW will be released before the end of this year.

  10. Sean C. says:

    So two of the Sand Snakes are escorting Myrcella, and not Trystane (because the book Martells aren’t kinslaying idiots) to King’s Landing to work from the inside, while Arianne acts on the outside.

    This whole aspect of the Dornish plans makes no sense to me. If Arianne decides to use the proverbial launch codes she’s been given to align Dorne’s forces with Aegon, Lady Nym and her 300 soldiers should be slaughtered to a man almost immediately thereafter.

    • Andrew says:

      Not if Doran has a plan regarding the army in the Boneway being led by Lord Yronwood. He could say Yronwood is rebelling, and that he would move against him but the Yronwoods have his son, Quentyn. He would be playing on the long history of animosity between House Martell and House Yronwood.

      • Sean C. says:

        The Lannister-Tyrell government would have to be idiots to believe that (and yes, Cersei is an idiot, but she’s a paranoid idiot who hates the Dornish, and will shortly be presented with a daughter who has been physically maimed; I don’t think she’d give Doran the benefit of the doubt). And at a minimum, they’d take them all hostage.

        • Andrew says:

          1. They think Doran is weak, and they are arrogant thinkingAegon no chance and Doran always goes with the winning side. They also know he imprisoned his own nieces over their calls for war.

          2. Doran said that if he were to make any changes to plan he would send word to them ASAP.

        • 1. Cersei’s mad.
          2. Kevan’s dead.
          3. Mace is the next person likely to be in charge.

          • Sean C. says:

            Mace and Randyll. And in any event, Mace in the books is not the ridiculous caricature the show presents him as. He’s not a genius, but he’s competent enough.

          • Not as a soldier.

          • Sean C. says:

            He doesn’t need to be a great soldier to recognize that Nym’s people should be disarmed in any conflict Dorne is involved in.

    • Or they open the gates of King’s Landing while KL’s armies are out in the field…

  11. Quicker analysis: Nothing happens. For ‘World Building’ lovers only.

    THE GOOD OLD DAYS: In #AGameOfThrones Cat & Rodrik travel from Winterfell to King’s Landing. Martin didn’t bother writing a POV chapter : why not? Cause Nothing Happened!

    NEW BLOATED DAYS: This chapter shows why the show DIDN’T do a straight adaptation of Dorne. The show made a terrible Dorne storyline, but this chapter is not like TV gold.

    • He wrote a POV chapter in AGOT about Cat climbing to the Eyrie.
      He wrote several POV chapters in ACOK about Jon and the NW travelling beyond the Wall and going through the deserted villages etc.
      He wrote several POV chapters, also in ACOK about Arya and the NW recruits travelling through the Riverlands and going through deserted villages, and POV chapters about Dany and her people travelling through the actual desert.

      In all these chapters, LESS happened than in this one.

      So, if you have a problem with “bloated” worldbuilding ways, those are OLD bloated ways that have always been there.

      • Respectfully disagree.

        In the AGOT Cat climbing to the Eyrie chapter that you mention: Cat got to the Eyrie. Cat got to her sister (aka: the person she was going to see). Cat and Lysa debated the Lannister threat. Things changed.

        In this TWOW chapter: Arianne has continued on a quest to see fAegon/JonCon from a previous chapter and still doesn’t find him; only to be redirected.

        What has changed: Start of chapter Arianne wants to meet with fAegon/JonCon. End of chapter: Arianne wants to meet with fAegon/JonCon.

        She learned some more facts, but personally, I wonder if the reader won’t have already learned the biggest fact (Storm’s End changeover) from a previous chapter.

        If people enjoyed this chapter, I’m glad. But I believe a fan of Martin’s earlier tighter narratives can have honest negative reactions to the later books. And just because the show’s Dorne fiasco is ridiculous, it doesn’t mean that Martin’s world can also leave many fans cold.

        • Julian says:

          Isn’t it at least possible that what seems like meandering may turn out–once you have read the entire actual book–to be significant? Reading this one POV may not reveal the impact of things you’re dismissing as tedium.

          • You’re absolutely correct. I pray to the Seven that once we reach the end of this story: readers will feel the journey was worth it.

            But isn’t it at least possible that what seems like meandering may turn out – once you have read the entire actual book – to be a Snooze?

            Hope everyone loves all the books.

    • Wrong. Storm’s End has fallen, the Tyrells have marched from King’s Landing, and Aegon is alive.

  12. They will bend the knee says:

    It’s funny. Last year GRRM released a Sansa chapter after they’ve butchered Sansa arc in GoT. This year he is releasing an Arianne chapter after the slaughter of the Dornish plot.

    • winnief says:

      Good point.

      Oh well Sansa is at least faring better this season but I think Dorne is just a lost cause.

      • Andrew says:

        I know, will Dorne really follow a baseborn mistress who murdered their prince and his heir who likely has no more than the kinslaying Sand Snakes as her support?

        • Crystal says:

          I am STILL not over the pod people who stand in for Ellaria and the Sand Snakes going all kinslayer on Doran’s and Trystane’s asses. I recall that Roose Bolton – ROOSE. BOLTON. – hesitates at kinslaying. (That is the reason Roose didn’t kill Ramsay for allegedly poisoning his legitimate son Domeric.) If Roose Bolton thinks something is forbidden, then damn tootin’ its forbidden, and any reasonable person (who is not Ramsay Bolton) will not do it.

          Peacenik Ellaria has been replaced by a pod person, as have the Sand Snakes, who, whatever their lust for vengeance, are devoted to their family and horrified at the thought of Trystane dying.

          • Crow's Eye says:

            Ellaria Sand has been character assassinated worse than Stannis. She’s the only Dornish person that’s actually pushing for peace and forgiveness instead of vengeance. “We don’t kill little girls in Dorne.” Guess not.

    • Kind of thinking the same thing. Especially his quote about Areo Hotah and Doran having a lot to do in the books.

  13. Chris says:

    I thought it rather interesting to learn that Doran believes in science above myth. Not exactly surprising, but interesting.

    Also, I’m like 99% sure Elia Sand is the one who is going to do something stupid, not Arianne. Like, okay, Arianne is still reckless, but Elia is just so very fourteen (interesting to compare that to the Stark sisters and their level of maturity!) and already does two stupid and reckless things in this chapter… if anyone is going to make a move on Aegon, I think it’s going to be her.

    • Rufus Leek says:

      The Stark girls have grown up the hard way. They were both pretty naive and foolish to begin with, although they were younger in book 1 than Elia is in book 6.

    • Crystal says:

      I see Elia Sand as spoilt and sheltered, as indeed the Stark sisters were at the beginning of AGOT. In fact, I think Oberyn and Ellaria were MORE indulgent than Ned and Cat, and there was no Septa Mordane to set discipline and boundaries.

      Now Dad is dead, Mom has gone to Grandpa’s, and Elia is off on a grand adventure with only slightly-older Cousin Arianne as chaperone. Of course Elia’s going to be a brat. Doran might have had the sense to send another, older woman (like Lady Blackmont or someone) as an additional chaperone. (Do Dornish girls have septas?)

  14. While I certainly enjoyed it it does come off as a bit of a travelogue with too much padding. You could easily start the chapter at the caves without losing anything and have them rerouted to storms end without the stop at Griffin’s Roost. It likely works much better as a stand alone than it will as part of the book.

    The idea of a bastard knight being Dorne’s negotiator is a non-starter and a bit of drama thrown in so the chapter can end at Griffin’s Roost instead of at least the outskirts of Storm’s End.

    I don’t want to sound overly negative as I still love spending time in that world but you can see how one book becomes two then becomes two without the climactic battles.

  15. winnief says:

    Yep Arianne is definitely going to ruin herself on fAegon. I still consider that storyline dull and stupid since it steals thunder from Dany and Jon. Oh, well its marginally better than Dorne on the show I guess.

    And I think the show’s exclusion of Arianne proves definitely she’s NOT the YMBQ. The signs really do seem to be pointing to Sansa.

    Must say I’m surprised Martin didn’t just release Jon’s resurrection and the Big Reveal already since the show’s already spoiled the former and about to do the latter.

    • Andrew says:

      I don’t think the storyline is comparable to Dany and Jon given Jon is the real deal regarding the hidden king trope while Aegon is a fake, and unlike, Aegon, we have known Jon since the beginning of the series. With Jon, there will be more drama given he will liekly struggle with the knowledge of his identity and heritage. I don’t see Dany and Jon being an item either.

      Although, I remember it being said the the only rash thing Doran has said to have done is marry Mellario. Arianne may be about to follow that same pattern. Something tells me when things start to go bad in the second Dance, her marriage to Aegon will suffer some serious strain.

      I don’t think she is the YMBQ either, and I don’t think she’ll ever reach KL.

      Well, just because GoT has outpaced him doesn’t mean he has to spoil the biggest shocker in the series to the detriment of his fans who just read the books.

      • winnief says:

        True, the psychological drama Jon is going to experience won’t be replicated by fAegon but having another long lost heir who’s a fake just cheapens it for the REAL hidden Targaryen. Plus its so irritating seeing fAegon actually going about conquering Westeros when that’s what Dany SHOULD be doing.

        • Andrew says:

          I think it would add to the reveal of Jon to Dany, since Dany, having already dealt with someone claiming to be her late brother’s son, would be even more skeptical than usual when Jon comes.

          Well, Dany will likely need a challenge in Westeros to keep it interesting, something the Lannisters clearly can’t do with figures like Cersei.

      • Crystal says:

        I think that yes, Arianne is going to marry Aegon. They will be happy for a while – then she will realize that he’s not who he says she is (I think her telling Lysono Maar “wow, you look Targaryen!” is a foreshadowing – the “Targ look” is shared by others!), she’ll have a Dawning Comprehension of How Bad She F*cked Up ala Quentyn, before she and Aegon are ‘cued by Drogon, because Dany is Not In The Mood For Games.

        I do not know if Doran will live to realize that at least two of his children died by dragonfire, but it will be a sad irony for him, and for Arianne to go by the same method as her brother (Dany ain’t planting no trees).

        • Andrew says:

          Thankfully, at least Trystane will likely survive, the only one not involved in his family’s schemes.

          I think Doran will predecease Arianne as result of the news of Quentyn’s death.

    • thatrabidpotato says:

      “The signs really do seem to be pointing to Dany”. FTFY

    • I don’t know if that’s the right way to think about it – stealing thunder suggests that Dan, Jon and Tyrion are the only “real” characters, but GRRM made more POVs for a reason. It”s not just their story.

  16. Growing up in a wet, wooded, hilly region (though not coastal) I gotta say that I love the visuals of the Stormlands. Ignoring politics & culture, the Stormlands would be one of picks to live in Planetos. This chapter might be the best yet in describing this English coast + Pacific NW + hurricane land.

  17. Josh Markey says:

    I’ve always taken the fact that the show skipped over Aegon as confirmation that he wasn’t really Aegon at all. I mean, if Rhaegar’s son was really running around Westeros it would seem to be to be pretty damn important to the plot, and not the sort of thing you could afford to skip in telling the story. I personally have always bought into the secret Blackfyre/Illyrio’s son with Serra theory. It makes a ton of sense when you add up the details, and would explain why Martin has dropped all that info about the Blackfyres on us.

    • Meh, that kinda glosses over the point; lot’s of people in Westeros are gonna accept that he’s the real McCoy & Dany is gonna be convinced that he ain’t. Who he actually is matters no more than whether Aegon IV meant for Daeron or Daemon to inherit. What matters in the unfolding of historical events (both fictional and real) is not what is the bedrock truth, but what choices do people make when they always have incomplete facts.

      As far as the show goes… Once again we have the very legit struggle of adapting this sprawling series to ten eps per season coming up against B&W’s limitations with following some of the subtleties of GRRM’s plotting. The result, “Cut the Aegon plot! I don’t care if it is the connective tissue between the Dany, Tyrion, Dorne & Kings Landing plotlines in the final third of the story, we have a whole year before we have to deal with the repercussions.”

  18. Richard Gadsden says:

    I understand how you’ve remembered it that way, but it’s Mirkwood, not Murkwood

  19. charei says:

    Arianne dislikes the tagaryen look und therefor will not marry Aegon.

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