RFTIT Tumblr Weekly Roundup

book2

Hey folks! It’s that time of the week, so let’s jump into the Tumblrs:

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12 thoughts on “RFTIT Tumblr Weekly Roundup

  1. winnief says:

    Don’t know if there was *anything* Robb could have written that would have changed Balon’s mind. The man was a complete idiot and more importantly Martin wanted the Starks to fall.

    The Ashford theory is likely bunk since Sansa’s heading North…unless there’s a Targaryen in the North!

    Good points about how difficult it would have been for the Reynes to hold the Rock and we are seeing that story happen for the Boltons.

    Some more problems for a Vale invasion of the North is that Rickon may be coming back from Skagos and Littlefinger is no fighter and he has no experience with the conditions in the North-or the politics there. Which means he could be in for a very nasty surprise.

  2. Keith B says:

    There’s no reason at all why the Vale should invade the North.

    If the Boltons are still in charge, real Sansa trumps fake Arya, and the Northern lords would support her, including the Manderlys. Then some Vale forces might land at White Harbor, but as allies rather than invaders.

    If Stannis has already won, he doesn’t want the North. Why would he fight Vale forces loyal to Sansa in order to hold it, when he could simply give it to her in exchange for an alliance that both sides want anyway?

    If Lord Manderly or Stannis has Rickon, Sansa wouldn’t fight her own brother, whose claim is clearly prior to hers. That’s especially true if she’s already married to the Lord of the Vale.

    Littlefinger’s declaration to Sansa that the Vale will attack the North and win it back for her is rubbish. In the only situation in which it makes sense for Vale forces to fight in the North (i.e., against the Boltons), they will have the support of most of it anyway.

    • Grant says:

      There are two problems. The first is the ability to actually do anything. On her own without that marriage Sansa doesn’t have any soldiers, and without them any ability to press her claims forward herself. If Sansa just goes to the North without any armies, she could very easily get grabbed and used by the Boltons to keep the houses under control. She’s not Davos, she’s not an expert at sneaking past people.

      The second is knowledge. Let’s review what Sansa does and does not know at this point in time. She knows that her younger brothers are reported dead, so she has no reason at this time to think that she’s not the last Stark and legal heir to Winterfell. She knows that her brother Robb was effectively in rebellion against Stannis, even though they never actually clashed. She does not know that Stannis wanted to put Jon Snow in Winterfell as Jon Stark, so she can’t be at all sure that he won’t decide to raise up a northern house that declared for him over the rebellious Starks.

      So really going to the North with a Vale army is her best way of making sure her claim gets pressed forward no matter who wins what battle where before she gets there.

      • Keith B says:

        The main issue is not what Sansa knows but what Littlefinger knows or believes at the time he reveals his plans to her. He believes that Bran and Rickon are dead and that Sansa is therefore the heir to Winterfell. He knows that the Boltons have what everyone believes is the only available heir, and that they’re using her to support their position. He knows that she’s a fake, and knows who she really is, since he was the one who provided her.

        So once Sansa is revealed, he can get the North to revolt against the Boltons by denouncing the fake Arya and having Sansa ask her lords for help. He doesn’t need to send Sansa to the North by herself. The Vale can send ravens and envoys on her behalf. If she sent a raven to Bear Island, Lyanna Mormont would give her a more favorable response than she gave Stannis. Wyman Manderly demanded that Davos retrieve Rickon before he would agree to support Stannis, but if Rickon weren’t available he would consider Sansa an acceptable substitute. Even the Ryswells and Lady Dustin would likely refuse to support the Boltons if they knew that Sansa was available and Arya was a fake.

        I suspect that Littlefinger’s purpose is to convince Sansa that she’s dependent on him and that the only way to regain her homeland is to participate in his plots. He doesn’t want a war with the North. He wants to rebuild the alliance between the Vale, the North, and the Riverlands, but to do it on his own terms so that he can control it. With Sansa under his control and his position as Lord Paramount of the Trident, he’s well on his way to accomplishing it.

        Taking an army into a foreign country without an invitation isn’t a good idea, unless your idea is to cause trouble. Sansa doesn’t need to do that in order to promote her claim; in fact it’s the one sure way to make potential allies oppose her claim.

        The nobles of Westeros are about as smart as a box of rocks, and pointless and stupid things are what they do best. Maybe the Vale army will fight a war in the North, because GRRM delights in causing doom and catastrophe, even when it’s absurd. But even if it happens in the books, it’s still pointless and stupid.

        • Winnief says:

          Agree with all of the above except one thing; Littlefinger *thinks* Sansa is thoroughly under his control but once they get to Winterfell I expect he’s in for a rude awakening.

          Frankly its one of the things I’m most looking forward to in Winds.

        • Grant says:

          Sure Littlefinger can denounce her. And, so far as he probably knows at this time, the Boltons can always say ‘What, she’s the girl who knows this place and its people so well, why are we listening to a man who’s never even been here before and has the entire Vale to choose from to find a redhead who can write letters?’. Manderly makes it clear to Davos that having a person isn’t enough. He needs Rickon’s wolf to make it clear that he really does have a Stark.

          And Sansa won’t even be in the North to argue her claim in this letter writing scenario. When you’ve got one candidate who you can’t prove is false right there under the control of one of the most militarily powerful houses in the region and another that you can’t be sure even exists who has no arms in the region, declaring for the latter is a pretty dangerous move. Without any guarantees of military support, would you risk your house’s survival on someone who isn’t there, in a conflict you might very well lose for a cause that might turn out to be false?

          • Keith B says:

            Lord Manderly isn’t limited to sending ravens. The Vale is a short hop by sea from White Harbor. If he doubts the information he’s receiving, he can send someone he trusts to verify it.

            Sansa won’t have any trouble establishing her identity. Her resemblance to both her mother and aunt should be sufficient by itself. Westeros isn’t swarming with highborn 13 year old girls who look exactly like a Tully. Catelyn Stark had been to White Harbor. Plenty of people had seen her. The moment they see Sansa, they’ll recognize her. If there’s any lingering doubt, her intimate knowledge both of Winterfell and the events at King’s Landing should be conclusive.

            The opposite is true of Jeyne Poole. She doesn’t look like either a Stark or a Tully, and she’s too old to be Arya. Most of the people at Winterfell probably already doubt her identity, they just don’t think it’s prudent to mention it. She barely has enough sense to stay in character. She doesn’t have the chutzpah to attempt to maintain the deception if she’s challenged. She would fall apart immediately. Once she does, even Lady Dustin will have no excuse to support the Boltons and will turn against them.

  3. Winnief says:

    Just think; only two more chapters then on to ASOS…

  4. KrimzonStriker says:

    Thanks for getting to my question, really appreciate your thoughts and I agree with most of your points. My primary concern if I’m Petyr Baelish is the weather in the North right now, whatever show!Littlefinger might say about the Vale knights experience fighting in frost covered peaks it still won’t change how severe the weather is right now and how badly it will hamper logistics. Thus the ONLY way I’d launch the Vale invasion of the North is if I get White Harbor on board and with it control of the Knife, without it I’d rather wait till next Summer. And the weather is the biggest difference with the North compared to invading the other kingdoms. Thus my own speculation is that he’ll go to the Riverlands first, the Freys are even more hated/reviled than the Boltons right now while being stretched incredibly thin, Petyr is technically Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and ‘liberating’ them will help secure his de jure bannermans de facto loyalty while obtaining additional forces, and there are a number of Northern hostages at the Twins that can be rescued to help pave the way to win local support for the future Northern campaign.

  5. Winnief says:

    Happy Easter Everyone!

    Have a Great Spring Break Steve.

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