Hey folks, it’s that time of the week again! First, the news:
- The Kickstarter has funded! So we are go for the e-books, the physical books, Battle of Blackwater Week, and all the bonus essays. Thanks so much for all your support!
- Sorry for the lateness of the Tumblr Roundup; in addition to finishing Jon VI (which will be up Monday), I’ve been working on Tyrion XI, Sansa IV, and Jon VII and it slipped my mind.
Next, the Tumblrs. This week, we’ve got tons of stuff:
- Why did Stannis leave Dragonstone?
- Why did the Iron Bank cut off credit to merchants?
- Where does the Citadel get its funding from?
- On Stannis surviving. Parts One, Two, Three.
- Could the Second Blackfyre Rebellion have succeeded?
- Stannis in the North: Part One, Part Two.
- What if Summerhall killed everyone? Bad stuff.
- Why are all the Great Houses so old? A lot of them aren’t.
- LF’s master plan.
- Aemon Dragonknight, babydaddy?
- Who killed Domeric Bolton? I think it might be Ramsay.
- Historical parallels for abdication.
- Why do the Oakhearts have a historical enmity for the Dornish?
- Braavosi sea power.
- Why doesn’t Tyrion leave after the Blackwater? Because money and ableism.
- Before the Conquest, who’s more important, Tullys or Tyrells? Tyrells.
- Aegon V and his kids. Part One and Part Two.
- A long exchange on Tyrion and Aegon.
Race for the Iron Throne 
Thank you so much for the round up Steve. Brilliant analysis as always but I disagree on one important detail….I don’t think Stannis will survive. D&D hastened that plot development, (and to your mind I know butchered the whole arc,) but I think that Stannis isn’t going to survive much longer after he inevitably burns Shireen. However much the show might have changed the *way* those events are fated to happen I’m depressingly sure they will happen.
My guess is that you’re right about one of the mutineers being the 999th LC but I think the 1000th might be Jaime as part of his redemption arc. In fact the show sorta foreshadowed it by having Jamie mock the NW to Jon in the very first episode so dramatic irony there.
Ot but part of the change to why the mutineers killed Jon, (besides the need to streamline) was I think to deliberately paint Jon as a more Christ risen/Messiah figure. They do like that sort of thing…note the 4 White Walker riders at Hardhome.
And I’m so happy to get a new chapter tomorrow. At this rate Battle of Blackwater week will be a Christmas present!
We can be sure that the 1000th commander of the Night’s Watch will be a major character. Martin didn’t plan to leave such a round number open if he intended to fill it with a nobody. Another possible candidate is Tyrion. When Maester Aemon told Tyrion that the Watch could use a man of his abilities, that might be foreshadowing.
If the Wall is coming down, will there even be a Night’s Watch? Or maybe the 1000th LC will also be the last LC.
Thanks!
Yeah, I’m all in on Stannis living.
As for BoB, I’m 2/9 chapters done. Hoping to get a lot of that done during Thanksgiving Break.
Regarding the Tyrells–I pretty much agree that WoIaF paints them during the Lord Stewardship period as a sort of Shogun-in-reverse, handling all the boring civil service stuff for the Gardeners–while being perfectly willing to throw down when necessary–and essentially running the Reach, for them. Which suggests that the ongoing difficulties with the Peakes, Florents et al isn’t a completely “new” post-Conquest thing for the Tyrells, just the latest iteration of “What are these upstarts doing with all this power?”
Actually, it’s worth noting that’s also probably why the Tyrells seem to have a much firmer control of the Reach than the Tullys do with the Riverlands. The Tyrells started out with the machinery necessary to control the region already in place, while the Tullys had to essentially construct their own from scratch, fighting a “you’re not the boss of me” attitude the entire time.
That sounds plausible. Of course, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Tyrrel’s may have ruined themselves aligning with the Lannister’s and in the chaos that is to come, House *Tarly* will be the ones to rise and take command as the new Paramount House of the Reach. Conversely, I think House Tully will take back Riverrun. Because in Westeros life is unpredictable.
I think there’s also an element of hidden vs. visible power. I.E, that the Tyrells could exercise power more easily when the Gardeners were there to give their actions legitimacy.
Oh, I’ve no doubt. I’m just saying that the grumbles were doubtless there back then, even if they’ve gotten louder now.
Actually, this is a good time for me to explain my latest Florent theory. How are the Florents a threat with only 3,000 men under their banners? By themselves, they aren’t, but–leaving aside that it’s very likely they’ve spent a long, long time losing power to get to that point–the big threat of the Florents is them acting as the ringleader/figurehead for discontented Reachlords.
Maybe. It’s still odd that they’d be considered a significant House tho.
There’s significant and there’s significant. The Florents seem to have a certain cachet but little in the way of actual power.
This makes me wonder Steven if the Tullys are considerably more expendable than the Tyrells? We know that the Tyrells didn’t start out with their own seat and to this day are considered upstart stewards, but because they’ve been prime ministers for so long the lords of the Reach at least respect them in a more administrative capacity.
Whereas the Tullys did have their own castle and lands and were high lords of the Riverlands at the time of Aegon’s conquest. But they were never kings or ruled the entire Riverlands in any capacity. The only reason they were promoted to lord paramount of RL was because they were on top of Aegon’s list. I would go even further by saying that while they were appointed to govern of the Riverlands, the Targaryens had in fact been the de facto kings of that region what with Aegon kicking out the Iron Born and then being accepted unanimously as the king by the Riverlords. This makes me question why anybody be it Stannis or Cersei and especially Aegon or Daenerys would need the Tullys to effectively hold the Riverlands.
Um, Steven, Part One and Part Three of “Tyrion leaving KL”, lead to the same thing.
Urg, sorry. Had a lot of issues with getting the links to work. For some reason, WordPress kept replacing links. Will fix.
Braavos having 700 warships in the start of a war… minimum? That would mean that they could win a war with the Iron throne at any point since the dance, even if Pentos and one of the three sisters allied with them. And you don’t have a massive naval power in a story without using it… In what kind of war would Braavos take part during Winds and Dream?
They could win a naval war, but not a land war.
And naval wars without much of an accompanying land war tend to drag on for years–even decades without much change. Witness the Ottoman Siege of Candia, in Crete, which started in 1648 and finished in 1669. As Westeros has nothing that’s worth that sort of investment, especially for a mercantile state, and Braavos has other things to worry about… no, it’s not going to happen.
Given that they are in different continents, the one that wins the naval war is the only one that attacks, and the one that decides where to attack. In this particular case, I think we could consider a naval victory as wining the war, because the IT would have to negotiate a bad peace.
I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that. The Romans mostly lost the naval side of the 1st Punic War, but they still won the war.
Stannis leaving for Dragonstone: “what people always seem to discount out of hand for no damn good reason is that Stannis was also acting in defense of his life and that of his family.”
Please. It’s a reason, but it’s not enough of a reason. Not for Stannis. After all, other people were potentially in danger too. The Renly-Loras plot to replace Cersei with Margaery was a direct attack on the Lannisters, but Renly stayed.
What people really seem to discount for no damn reason is that Stannis had a duty. He was on the Small Council as Master of Ships, and he had a duty to either serve in that position or resign it. He had a duty to his brother to warn him of treason and threats to his life. It was reasonable to act through Jon Arryn on the grounds that the Hand had more credibility with the King than Stannis did, but Jon Arryn’s death did not dissolve Stannis’ duty. It only made it more urgent.
Once Jon Arryn died, Stannis should have gone directly to his brother to tell him what he knew, or to the new Hand if he still preferred to work that way. If the King and/or Hand rejected his advice, he could then have declared that he was no longer able to serve the Realm, resigned his position on the Small Council, and gone back to Dragonstone. That would have gotten people’s attention, at least. Instead he left his brother to be completely blindsided, which is an act of treachery in itself.
Stannis had a duty. Stannis never never never abandons his duty. Stannis abandoned his duty in this case. The real reasons why he did it are:
1. Martin needed Ned to solve the mystery by himself for the sake of his story.
2. That’s it. There’s no other reason.
Why is it not a reason? Stannis had every reason to expect his life was in danger. Can’t fulfill your duty when you’re dead.
I didn’t say it wasn’t a reason, only that it wasn’t enough of a reason. Not for the man who held Storm’s End to the brink of starvation. Not for the man who assaulted Dragonstone and defeated Victarion Greyjoy at sea.
At least, when Jon Arryn died, Stannis could have told Robert what was going on. If Robert didn’t believe him, then he could say “good bye, brother, and good luck.” He could have stayed in King’s Landing until the new Hand arrived; with all the Lannisters going north with the King, it should not have been too dangerous to remain. He could have left a sealed message for Ned; there had to be someone in KL he could trust. He could have sent his personal envoy (Davos, maybe) from Dragonstone.
Failure to warn someone may not be as serious a crime as plotting against him yourself, but it’s a betrayal nonetheless. It’s not what Stannis would do.
It’s what he did!
And no one gave Stannis orders to hold King’s Landing. He did the tactically prudent thing; he made a retreat to where he could build up resources to continue the fight.
A related question. If Stannis had gone to Robert with his accusations do you think Robert would believe him? I think it would certainly have sown doubt in Roberts mind. He knows his bastards have black hair. If Cersei left him enough time he would come to act on these suspicions at some point?
Sown doubt at most, but I think Robert would probably have reared up defensively; that dude especially would not have been happy being called a cuckold.
One wonders if Littlefinger’s ego would be sated by just being the power behind the throne. He would not mind being the shadow ruler at first but eventually he would desire the true recognition of being king. And if he did indeed crown himself king, he might even go further by having people worship him. This is the natural evolution of Baelish’s ambition, that is, if he is not killed by whitewalkers/mountain clans/Sansa/Arya/FAgeon/Daenerys/Euron/Stannis/Jon Snow/Rickon’s unicorn cavalry corps etc.
I’ve wondered that about LF myself. After all the incredible ‘shadow power’ he held in KL wasn’t enough to satisfy him.
That’s one thing I like about the show with LF asking Cersei to name him Warden of the North, so he can finally get that kind of recognition in his own name…of course if he seriously thinks he can get the Northerners to actually recognize him as such he’s kidding himself.
I think even LF knows that he couldn’t ever credibly hold the Throne.
But maybe I’m wrong.
He knows he can’t credibly hold the Vale either, but he sure intends to try. As long as he’s in the game, Littlefinger won’t stop playing until he’s won everything: himself as King, with Sansa as his Queen, co-conspirator, and junior partner. Look at what he has already: Lord Protector of the Vale, Lord Paramount of the Trident, and an excellent shot as taking the North, as well as some informal allies in the Reach. Plus a large fortune gained from embezzlement and other business deals. All this starting essentially with nothing. It may take him more time, more war, destruction, and chaos, but in his own mind I believe he thinks he can do it.
By the way, I wouldn’t count on the sincerity of his promise to Sansa that she would marry Harry the Heir and have the Vale retake the North for her. He may not be willing to give up Sansa to another man at this point. Also, she can’t actually marry as long as Tyrion is alive and the marriage isn’t annulled. There’s a good chance he’s playing her.
He probably is playing her. But she might be playing him.
What does it take to annul a marriage in the Faith of the Seven, assuming that it hasn’t been consummated? Tywin got Tyrion’s marriage annulled with so little fuss that no one outside his immediate family seems to know about it. I got the impression that it might take someone a little higher than a common septon, but not much. Sansa’s marriage was much more public, of course, but at least it wasn’t performed by the High Septon. That would have made getting it annulled much more interesting…
And speaking a septons, that comment on Tumblr about an old septon and a young septon…well, I can’t say anything that would do it justice. Wow.
Apparently there are three ways to annul an unconsummated marriage:
1. The High Septon can set it aside;
2. A Council of the Faith (whatever that is) can set it aside;
3. Tywin Lannister can glare at a Septon until he signs a paper saying it never happened.
The third way is the only one that also works on consummated marriages.
Technically, I suspect that Tyrion’s marriage with Tysha wasn’t canonically correct anyway.
Remember, the effing pig they ate at the “feast” afterwards was the witness.
Also, Tyrion was a minor and probably couldn’t legally marry without permission.
I’m not entirely sure he actually got it annulled, so much as he bribed them to destroy all the records. Because an annulment normally involves paperwork that Tywin would not want to exist.
Hell, in this case I’m pretty sure said records were destroyed by said septon (who recall was drunk at the time) agreeing that no, no, nothing every happened.
Nah, I’m pretty sure he’s marrying her to Harry. He’s got no army if he doesn’t do that.
Yeah, it’s my current theory the LF plans for Harry to be king when everything shakes out. LF thinks that he will be Hand and can rule directly through Harry or that Sansa can control him and he’ll control Sansa. Maybe when a prince that is born that looks like Petyr (ick), Harry would be killed off somehow and the Petyr would become regent for the kid as well as Hand.
David – pretty much.
Littlefinger should have died multiple times in each book he appears in. And he knows it.
The fact that he’s gotten away with it has made him giddy, IMO, and now he’s gotten victory disease. Like Euron, he’s not going to content himself with part, he wants the whole. And like Euron, it’s going to cost him.